Your Move, NATO.

For over two years, Ukrainian troops have tirelessly resisted the Russian invasion—and even expanded onto Russian soil—in a quest to defend their sovereignty. From devastating air missile attacks to full-out trench warfare and brutal civilian massacres, the war in Ukraine has boiled into the bloodiest European conflict since the Second World War. 

Now, Ukrainian soldiers face another challenge: foreign troops from a pariah state wearing Russian uniforms. U.S. intelligence has recently confirmed that up to 10,000 North Korean troops have been transported to Russia and likely will soon take to the war’s frontlines. According to U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, the Kremlin has been training North Korean troops in artillery, drone usage, and basic infantry operations, all indications of Vladimir Putin’s intention to utilize these troops in frontline operations. The deployment of troops from North Korea to Russia additionally is historic: the last time foreign troops were welcome on Russian soil was over a century ago. While the impact North Korean forces will have on the Russian war effort remains unclear, Putin’s decision to turn to the Hermit Kingdom for military assistance begs the question: what does North Korea or Russia have to gain from this transaction?

Before all else, the Kremlin’s appeal to Pyongyang for military reinforcements may indicate a far cry from the opening days of the war, when it was evident that population size was among the Kremlin’s greatest advantages. Initially, this significant imbalance enabled Putin to casually replenish Russian ranks, even as Russians were killed or injured more than Ukrainians: a 2023 U.S. Congressional report estimated that Russia suffered over 300,000 casualties and Ukraine under 200,000. However, if Putin is now appealing to Kim Jong Un for reinforcements, then it’s evident that Putin’s numerical losses on the frontlines are finally catching up to him. Additionally, the North Korean soldiers might boost morale: obviously, it’s better to have foreign troops perish on the frontlines than a nation’s kin. Putin’s draft is widely unpopular: countless young men fled Russia by rail, road, and air, inflicting grisly injuries on themselves in hopes of exemption or sorrowfully accepting their fate on the bleak frontlines through tearful phone calls to loved ones. 

However, the insights of this military deal extend far beyond the state of Putin’s war. Any war where a country’s troops die on foreign soil is politically costly, so what could the benefits possibly be for Kim? The benefits could prove significant if the Hermit Kingdom’s leader played his cards.  The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia strengthens the alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang, but it may also provide Kim with valuable leverage over Russia. While the West can only guess what the exact terms of the agreement between Putin and Kim were, any level of Russian support can be incredibly beneficial for North Korea, particularly for supporting North Korea’s military and nuclear equipment development. North Korea relies on archaic Soviet-era planes, tanks, and other equipment in dire need of updating, and Putin can supply Pyongyang with high-tech weaponry—a deal that he likely will be far more open to in response to Kim providing military reinforcements to the Kremlin. Moreover, Russian support can help North Korea hone its missile capabilities and develop long-range missiles that threaten the U.S. or its allies: an incredibly unsettling yet entirely possible reality.

Beyond weapons, Kim stands to gain battlefield experience for his troops. The last time North Korean troops took to the frontlines was in the 1950s, amidst the Korean War. Since then, warfare has changed dramatically, with the war in Ukraine highlighting the future of combat—utilizing drones and cyber warfare. Should North Korea seek to expand its military ventures, the Ukraine frontline could provide crucial lessons. Notably, Kim's decision to deploy troops into unfamiliar territory marks an unprecedented shift in North Korea’s military philosophy. No longer contained by isolationism or content to remain on the sidelines with missile tests, Kim is now demonstrating a willingness to engage in foreign conflicts directly. As a result, Kim's moves must raise alarms in the West, who must consider the prospect of North Korean troops on foreign soil, both for regional and global security concerns. 

Above all, North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia marks an unprecedented instance of direct military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow—that was further cemented with a mutual defense treaty between the allies on Wednesday—which may escalate the war. South Korea has already considered sending in troops to aid Ukrainians in response. The whole situation has left Russia and North Korea’s ally China in an uncomfortable position. While China has been supportive of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine from the beginning, Beijing has fallen short of providing Putin’s troops with offensive weaponry. As a result, Xi Jinping is faced with the threat of becoming a third wheel in his alliances with both Putin and Kim, and may now feel more than ever obliged to become directly involved in Eastern Europe. As history has shown time and time again, direct military involvement of foreign nations tends to have a domino effect, as allies scramble to not miss out on an opportunity to both strengthen alliances and to assert military dominance. 

Your move, NATO.