It's Bigger than US: 4 Elections to Watch in 2024

Ellen Jordan ’26 in Opinions | February 23, 2024

Although it is easy to think that all that matters in 2024 will depend on the impending Biden-Trump rematch in November, there are many other elections taking place this year on which to keep an eye. Last November, The Economist predicted that 2024 will be “the biggest election year in history,” with good reason: citizens in at least 64 countries are poised to vote in national elections, and the ballots cast in the coming months have the ability to shape the world’s geopolitical landscape for decades to come. Here are four countries due to head to the polls that are worth paying attention to.

Senegal:

Amidst the general chaos of West Africa, a region that continues to be plagued by civil wars and heavy conflict, Senegal has stood out as one of Africa’s most important and stable democracies. Peaceful transitions of power have been the rule, which has allowed Senegal to achieve economic prosperity and a rising standard of living as well as improvements in healthcare and education.

However, on February 3, the President of Senegal, Macky Sall—who already served his maximum of two terms—announced Senegal’s Presidential Election was postponed from February until December. The decision, delivered just three weeks before the Senegalese were due to vote, was received as a direct attack on the nation’s democracy. Following the decree, protests erupted all over the nation and have already claimed three lives.

Although Sall’s decision was deemed illegal by Senegal’s constitutional court on February 16, and he has since pledged to reschedule the election as soon as possible, Sall has not yet provided the Senegalese with a specific date. Therefore, the chaos that he has unleashed continues: While Sall has been declared a power-hungry dictator by some of his constituents, The Economist suggested that perhaps Sall aims to delay the election to buy time for finding a new candidate to support, considering that victory is not currently guaranteed for Sall-endorsed and current Prime Minister Amadou Ba, who faces strong opposition from other candidates.

If and when Senegal will have the opportunity to vote on Sall’s successor remains unclear. Given the instability around Senegal, any crumbling of its democratic institutions will likely have a wider negative impact.

The United Kingdom:

Although the U.K. has been fortunate enough to be spared thoughts of potential dictatorship within its government, the island continues to face financial woes. In the last quarter of 2023, its economy slid into a recession, placing even more pressure on the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak.

Since entering an office facing whiplash from Liz Truss’ chaotic stint as prime minister , in which she was memorably outlasted by a head of lettuce, Sunak has faced blunder after blunder with only occasional success. Most of his defeats have been financial as the U.K. suffered heavy inflation and minimal economic growth.

Sunak’s stance on the U.K.’s growing illegal immigration problem has also come under fire: in March, he introduced the “Illegal Migration Bill” which included the right to deport immigrants caught illegally attempting to cross the English Channel to a “safe third country” such as Rwanda. The bill was never realized, and instead Sunak was characterized as “racist” by his critics.

The combination of ineffective economic policies and controversial public policies has cemented Sunak among the most unpopular British Prime Ministers in recent history (behind Truss, of course). In December, his approval ratings hit an all-time low of just 23 percent. Although the U.K. has until January 28, 2025 to organize the next general election, Sunak has already promised to “call” an election in late 2024. However, Britons likely will not head to the polls in November, as Sunak additionally hopes to avoid having to divide media attention with the much anticipated Biden-Trump rematch.

Undoubtedly, Britain’s next general election will test its government’s stability once again: in less than two years, the U.K. has been led by three prime ministers. As Sunak’s popularity continues to plummet, the likelihood grows that there will be yet another change of power in the U.K.

Russia:

Sitting across from Tucker Carlson in an ornate chair in Moscow, Vladimir Putin looked as confident as ever. He laughed at many of the former Fox News anchor’s comments, radiating self-assurance with each response. Following the interview—his first Western one since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022—he even joked that Carlson failed to ask enough “aggressive” questions. Yet, beyond the sheltered interview room, cracks are visible in this once-untouchable leader.

On March 17, Russians will return to the polls to, theoretically, “vote” in the country’s Presidential Election, where Putin seeks to win a fifth term. Presumably, he hopes to increase his winning margins further from 2018’s 76 percent.

Given this background, any other Russian “candidates” are trivial. Instead, the real question is whether or not Putin will face any resistance while reaffirming his grip over the country. Much has changed in Russia since 2018 when Putin’s name was last on the ballot, and Putin’s control may not be as secure as six years ago.

To begin with, the last time Putin was vying for the Presidency, he was not simultaneously managing a bloody, full-scale conflict; the war in Ukraine has proved to be far from the ideal clean sweep the Russian leader hoped for. Also, it was between 2018 and 2024 that Putin faced the greatest threat to his power: Yevgeny Prigozhin. Last June, the former leader of the Wagner Group (a Russian military company) staged a full-scale armed rebellion against Putin. While Prigozhin’s act of defiance was eventually shut down, and Prigozhin was coincidently reported dead in a plane crash soon after, the uprising revealed cracks in Putin’s leadership.

Along with taking Prigozhin out of the picture, Putin recently silenced his greatest critic: Alexei Nalvany, who was reported dead on February 16 in his Arctic prison. While these may merely be Putin attempting to exercise power, his elimination of both Prigozhin and Nalvany can simultaneously be interpreted as paranoia from the ever-nearing March 17. Perhaps Putin is not as confident as he appears on the television screen.

Ukraine:

A country that is currently intertwined with Russia for all the wrong reasons is Ukraine. For a decade, the city of Avdiivka, situated in the heart of the Donetsk Oblast, remained a key stronghold for Ukrainian forces. Yet, on February 17, a Russian flag rather than the familiar blue and yellow flew over the city. Following one of the war’s bloodiest battles, Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw. Its greatest victory since Ukraine’s unsuccessful counteroffensive, Russia’s conquest of Avdiivka was both a strategic and symbolic blow to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In addition to managing a war with dwindling troops, supplies, and outside aid, Ukraine faces an additional dilemma: whether to hold a Presidential Election.

In accordance with the Ukrainian Constitution, the next Presidential Election must be held by March 2024, but Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia’s invasion in 2022, which suspends elections. Further, back in late 2023, Zelenskyy explained that this spring “is not the right time for elections,” reasoning that Ukraine must instead focus on the war effort.

Yet despite Zelenskyy’s stance, it is still possible that Ukranians will head to the polls, as Western nations have expressed disdain at Zelenskyy’s announcement. Specifically, leaders from the U.S.’s Republican Party voiced its disapproval, believing that Ukraine’s election suspension of an would not uphold its allegiance to democracy

The opinions of U.S. lawmakers indeed have the power to overturn Zelenskyy’s previous decree, as American aid remains a critical lifeline for the Ukrainian military.

Indeed, Zelenskyy’s imminent decision—whether to give in to Republicans’ demands, accepting the challenges of organizing a war-time election, or to risk losing crucial aid—may very well demonstrate the true extent American influences hold over the war-torn country as the conflict enters an increasingly pivotal period.

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It's Bigger than US: 4 Elections to Watch in 2024