The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Is on the Horizon: Now Is the Time to Help Ukraine.

Soldiers crammed into muddy trenches. 

The exchange of frontal assaults, machine guns, and shellfire all to gain minimal territory.

No, this isn’t a recount of the Battle of the Somme, though it is a picture that eerily resembles battlegrounds of the First World War. 

It’s a description of Avdiivka, Ukraine. 

Almost two years after Russia’s invasion, the war has entered perhaps its most bloody phase yet. In the past months, neither Ukraine nor Russia have made significant territorial gains, and both sides have switched tactics. Along with the introduction of trench warfare, both Ukraine and Russia have turned to the use of missiles and drones. For Russia, this has meant attacking Ukrainian cities from the air in an attempt to damage key infrastructure and Ukrainians’ morale. 

In early January, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claimed that the Russian military had fired over 500 missiles and drones in the span of just five days. Although Ukraine has simultaneously responded with missile attacks on Russian cities as well as the implementation of guerrilla warfare, the Ukrainian military is in troubling shape. Its long-awaited counteroffensive failed, and Ukrainian battalions have reported that their artillery firing has been reduced by an estimated 90 percent compared to last summer.

“This is perhaps the bleakest time for Ukraine’s military,” Eric Schmidt, a national security correspondent for The New York Times, recently proclaimed—a declaration which spells warning signs for the Ukrainian war effort. 

Yet one event taking place across the Atlantic, thousands of miles from Kyiv will profoundly impact the war—the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. 

Even though the Republican primaries have just gotten underway, it already appears fated that former President Donald Trump will once again clinch the nomination. In spite of the numerous legal charges that stand in the way of his reconquest of the White House, it is clear that he is still the face of the Republican Party. Following the conclusion of the Iowa Caucus, it became increasingly apparent that challenger Nikki Haley currently stands little chance in dethroning Trump, who walked away from the 2024 Iowa Caucus with 20 delegates – more than all his competitors combined. Thus, voters can already expect that the 2024 election will indeed be a repeat of 2020—a Biden-Trump rematch. 

However,  the current political state of the United States is far different than that of 2020. For starters, voting turnout for the upcoming Presidential election is expected to be lower than the tremendous turnout that took place back in 2020, during which over ⅔ of eligible voters went to the polls. The reasoning behind this prediction is the dissatisfaction projected towards both of the candidates. Most Americans do not want a Biden-Trump rematch. And indeed it was increased voter turnout, especially among younger Americans, that played a crucial role in Biden’s toppling of Trump in 2020. Further, the current U.S. president’s approval ratings have recently sunk to an all-time low: at the moment, just 33 percent of Americans approve of Biden as opposed to 55 percent in 2021. The combination of a projected decrease in voter turnout and low approval ratings demonstrate just how tight the election is poised to be. Yet it won’t just be Americans glued to their television screens come Election Day: Zelenskyy and Putin will also be watching closely.

If Trump were to return to the Oval Office next January, the Ukrainian war effort would be placed in an even more concerning situation, as on numerous occasions, in addition to failing to pledge public support to Ukraine since the Russian invasion back in 2021, the former President has been critical of supplying aid to Ukraine. 

“The good old USA ‘suckers’ are paying a VAST majority of the NATO bill, & outside money, going to Ukraine. VERY UNFAIR!” Trump wrote last October on his personal social media platform, Truth Social. Throughout his time in office, Trump expressed an “America First” philosophy. This philosophy seems to spur his criticism of Ukrainian aid, as he believes that America should focus on more domestic issues, such as the crisis at the southern border. It should also be remembered that during his time as President, Trump reportedly discussed pulling the U.S. out of NATO altogether. Because of this, it is probable that if elected, Trump will cut U.S. aid towards the war effort—aid that is currently keeping the Ukrainian military afloat. Yet, an additional indication of the former President’s outlook on the war in Ukraine is in fact his own personal relationship with Putin. 

Even before his victory in 2016, Trump often was in full praise of Putin, yet their relationship became increasingly controversial upon the initiation of the Mueller Investigation. 

In March 2019, special counsel Robert Mueller was appointed to investigate allegations of Russian influence in the 2016 election. Although his investigation ultimately found no evidence for collusion, Mueller’s report concluded that “a Russian entity carried out a social media campaign that favored presidential candidate Donald J. Trump and disparaged presidential candidate Hillary Clinton” and “a Russian intelligence service conducted computer-intrusion operations [against the Clinton campaign].” 

Regarding his relationship with Putin over the war in Ukraine, Trump has declined to call Putin a war criminal, going as far as to proclaim that he would end the conflict in “24 hours” without disclosing in which side’s favor. 

And do not forget that Trump has threatened to cut off Ukraine from aid in the past. Indeed, the former President’s relationship with Ukraine was front-and-center when he was impeached by the House on charges of abuse, power, and obstruction in 2019. The scandal first began to unravel when an anonymous whistleblower reported that Trump had held a phone call with Zelenskyy, during which Trump threatened to withhold over $400 million in congressionally-approved aid unless Zelenskyy agreed to investigate Biden and his son, Hunter. 

From Trump’s relations with Putin, his negative stance on—as well as previous interference in—the U.S. supplying Ukraine aid, the message is clear: the time to provide Ukrainian aid is running out, should Trump be victorious come November. Due to this risk, it is imperative that the U.S. place Ukraine in a more adequate position to defend itself prior to the expiration of Biden’s first term. Although the war in Ukraine has recently been sidelined by conflicts in the Middle East, it is still of colossal importance to Americans. A Russian victory would be catastrophic not just for Ukranians, but for all democracies. At the core of this conflict, Ukraine struggles against dictatorship and totalitarianism, the very principles that Americans proudly stand against. For the U.S. to act consistently with its values, it must continue to stand with Ukraine in its fight against tyranny.

Bloodshed will not cease should Putin be victorious. The realities of civilian atrocities ranging from the massacre in Bucha to the wholesale destruction of Mariupol should give pause to anyone believing that Russia would act benignly following a military victory over Ukraine. It is acts of barbarity such as these that further illustrate the true brutality of the Russian army, and suggest that the U.S. election is not just important to American voters, but possesses the ability to shape the global landscape for decades to come.